The most popular six factors influence the domesti

  • Detail

Six factors influence the domestic chemical market in 2005

six factors influence the domestic chemical market in 2005

January 18, 2005

where will the domestic chemical market develop this year? Is the price rising in the violent shock like last year, or will it continue to fall after the decline at the end of last year, or will it remain stable at a high level? The author thinks that it will be influenced by many important factors to a great extent

first of all, the national economy will maintain a rapid growth this year, and the demand for chemical products from all walks of life will also maintain a rapid growth. Although in the process of economic operation, this year will show more steady steps, and the state will continue to implement macro-control on some overheated investment industries, which will restrain the growth of the demand for chemical products to a certain extent, it is generally estimated that the domestic market demand for chemical products will remain strong in the view of the above-mentioned people this year. With the support of strong demand, the price of chemical products will have an internal driving force to rise

secondly, last year, domestic 'coal, electricity and oil transportation' goods were tight and prices rose, which made chemical and related enterprises restless, and directly promoted the continuous and comprehensive rise in the price of chemical products. It is estimated that the overall situation of domestic 'coal, electricity and oil transportation' with tight prices is unlikely to be fundamentally improved this year, which means that the production and operating costs of chemical products are difficult to be significantly reduced in the short term, which means that the selling prices of chemical products are difficult to be really reduced. At the same time, due to the impact of 'coal, electricity and oil transportation', it is expected that the performance of our experimental machines in the chemical industry this year will not be comparable. The development of some high-energy consuming industries and low-level enterprises will be more and more strictly restricted, which may directly lead to the reduction of the total supply of relevant chemical products and the continuous rise in prices

third, with the further reduction of China's import tariff this year and the further opening of the market to the outside world, a large number of foreign chemical products with competitive advantages may enter the Chinese market faster than before, especially in terms of some bulk chemical raw materials, which may affect the direction of the domestic chemical market, and domestic products will face a more severe competitive situation. Due to the large-scale entry of foreign goods, although the production capacity of some bulk chemical raw materials that are highly dependent on foreign countries is still seriously insufficient, there may be a phased serious surplus of supply this year. At that time, the market price may plummet, and the domestic price may not be able to sell when it falls below the cost line

fourth, as the frequency, scope and intensity of anti-dumping measures against China's export of chemical products and China's import of chemical products have accelerated in recent years, the fluctuation of the domestic chemical market this year is likely to be more intense, and there may be a sharp turn in the market trend in a short time

fifth, the turbulence in the international crude oil market has repeatedly caused violent ups and downs in the petrochemical products downstream of the oil head in the domestic market in the past two years, and the changes in the domestic market are increasingly tending to change synchronously with the international crude oil prices. It is expected that the trend of the international crude oil market this year will still have a profound impact on the domestic petrochemical market, and the domestic change trend will continue to closely follow the international market. As there are great uncertainties in the international crude oil price changes, correspondingly, there are also great uncertainties in the price changes of petrochemical products downstream of domestic oil heads. Therefore, it may be more difficult to organize and operate downstream petrochemical products related to crude oil this year

sixth, the price trend of some chemical products whose prices have not been fully liberalized will continue to be restrained by the national macro-control policies this year. In view of the tight price of energy and raw materials and the fact that the price of controlled chemical products cannot be raised arbitrarily, downstream chemical enterprises will still face huge cost pressure. However, it is believed that the marketization of some chemical products whose prices have not been fully liberalized will be further improved this year than last year

the factors influencing the trend of the domestic chemical market this year are far from those estimated by uacj, and are often comprehensively reflected in the market operation. However, the author believes that the above factors will play a decisive role without accidents

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI