Catalyst for the most popular pulp explosion chang

2022-07-30
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Catalyst for pulp explosion: supply shortage of wood pulp caused by changes in wood chip supply release date: Source: China paper industry number of Views: 2475 copyright and disclaimer core tips: [China Packaging News] although the current capital market environment is still not conducive to bulls, specific industries still have to be analyzed in detail, so we still choose the team of pulp bulls; Recently, Kuo

[China Packaging News] although the current capital market environment is still not conducive to bulls, specific industries still have to be analyzed in detail, so we still choose to stand in the pulp Bulls' camp; Recently, the spot price of broad-leaved pulp has rebounded, and the suppliers' willingness to support the price is obvious. At present, the price difference of needle and broad-leaved pulp may have been upside down. Looking back at the 15 years' history, the upside down cycle of price difference between needle and broad leaf is very short, and the price of needle is much higher than that of broad leaf in most of the time. The upside down of price will drive the demand for needle to rise, and the price rebound will become a high probability event. Recently, the spot price of broad-leaved pulp has rebounded, the quotation of mainstream traders has increased by 100/ton, the suppliers' willingness to support the price is obvious, and the price of coniferous pulp may have bottomed out

core logic:

1. Judging from the amount of wood chips cut in North America, there is a shortage of needle fiber

2. Judging from the import of Asian wood chips, there is a regional shortage of broad-leaved fiber

3. The shortage of wood pulp fiber from the perspective of China's waste paper import policy

conjecture: the environmental protection operation sector is expected to achieve excess returns

daily and weekly charts of pulp 1906

the expectation to change the capital market is that the industry needs to bring at least one outbreak point. For pulp dominated by the market abroad, the change in wood chip supply or the best topic causing supply shortage:

judging from the amount of wood chip cut in North America, there is a shortage of needle fiber: Canada is a large producer of needle pulp, Bess province is also an important source of timber supply in the country. The MDT long-term wood supply model forecast shows that the inland wood cutting volume in Bisi province decreases by 1million cubic meters every year, and the coastal wood cutting volume decreases by about 2million cubic meters every year. The decline in the supply of wood chips from pulp mills in Bisi province is equivalent to the reduction in the output of pulp mills by more than 300000 tons/year. The bearing capacity of broad-leaved forest felling may be more tight, and the resource attribute of wood pulp products is prominent

from the perspective of Asian wood chip imports, there is a regional shortage of broad-leaved fiber: Asia imports 25million + absolute dry tons of pulping wood chips every year, 95% of which are shipped to China and Japan. In terms of the structure of main source countries: in 2018, 856.2% of the imported wood chips from Asia strive to complete the construction of all new material projects in Nanzhuang within five years. Million absolute dry tons are from Vietnam, 5.308 million absolute dry tons are from Australia, and 2.575 million absolute dry tons are from Chile, of which Vietnam's export capacity may have reached its peak; Australia stopped growing pulpwood as early as 2009, and the quantity of pulpwood is declining year by year. It is expected that the export volume will turn downward in the past two years; As for Chile, the araucovaldivia project will start needle widening in 2019. At that time, the export of Chile's hardwood chips will decline significantly

in terms of price, the price of China's imported Australian hardwood chips rose month by month in 2018, from $180/ton at the beginning of the year to about $200/ton at present. It is expected that in January 2019, the price will continue to rise by $20/ton, Wang Sufang, technical manager of Shanghai Boni Testing Technology Co., Ltd. From a certain level, it reflects the shortage of pulpwood supply

from the perspective of China's waste paper import policy, there is a shortage of wood pulp fiber: the export volume of waste paper in G7 countries decreased by 1.46 million tons in H1 2018 compared with that in 2017h1, and the export to China decreased by 4.75 million tons. Although the import of waste paper in India and Southeast Asia increased significantly over the same period, several of them have followed China in formulating strict import waste control policies. The export volume of waste paper in G7 countries has declined or is difficult to avoid, and incineration, Burying and processing waste paper pulp for export may become an effective way. In the first year of China's foreign waste import policy, 3million tons of paper fiber were reduced annually in the world. With the gradual deepening of the policy of restricting the import of waste paper in developing countries, it is expected that the annual gap may continue and further increase

in general, pulpwood is in a global shortage trend, and its resource scarcity may be lightened in the next few years, which is a frequently used industrial vocabulary at present. On the demand side, wood fiber is widely used in packaging materials, printing materials, household paper, textiles and clothing and other production raw materials due to its recyclability, easy degradation and incineration, light weight and easy molding, and its consumption is showing a stable growth trend. The value of this fiber material, whose global supply and demand development is obviously tightening, may be revalued for a long time in the future

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